STL2STM2BookC_StringPrint_SetupTPrintStartupSound_TabLISTBook_PrefsAct List Scene Drawing_Model Draw_Specs diagram_struct_arrayDependentsScriptPad_ListManuscriptPlayPlay_PrefsModelSubscript_Set_ListSubscript_SetArraySimulation_ModelRun_Specsentity_struct_arrayentity_structint16_arraydouble_arraytoken_type_arraytoken_type run_handle_array!Draw_Index"Module_Name#Poster_Info$queue%Units&Poster_Tab'AliasRecord(Play_Where)diagram_struct*Point_array+movie_attach,Picture_Tab-Pad.Model_Index_array/Button_Type0Condition1Movie_Tab2Model_Index3slider_type4Log_Condn5Log_Page6Dependent_Entry7graph_type8curve_type_array9curve_type:Model_Template;Pathname<Panel=Sector_Specs>SET?Sense_Setup@select_struct_arrayAallow_struct_arrayBPicture_arrayCPictureDsense_select_arrayEEntity_Controller_MapFSection_ListGFont_MapHFont_Map_Record_ArrayIFont_Map_RecordJWindow_ListKModel_WindowLPad_WindowMTImportExportN@@ X t    *f xxHHS\HHSd'Du pd ,,<             JJ   drmd   yT x@@ w<  Pd*4d*PP??"2  "V  ( Pi0x0b*c* :&is(1 Dim_Name_1 jj@~?@875Time72l @έ'p@Kx^@έ'p?@'@R0*@έ'p???"inflow emergent_fry   !" #$%&mJ@'?@nQ5@sJ[Tz@'@(????#@(outflow_12_months_later12 !" #$%&l?@0-ɑ@(=p @-n@(=p @0-ɑ??$Adults_Ready_to_Spawn0% !" #$%&m@@0-ɑ?@-n@P@0-ɑ????%?Adults_Spawning1$ !" #$%&kD?Ci l??󶟟4?&?Ci l???'adult_migration_lossadult_migration_loss_fraction( (!" #$%&cF???????????????? (?adult_migration_loss_fraction0.25'   ? !under pristine conditions, loss could be 6.34% per 100 miles and the adults must travel 386 miles to confluence of the Tucannon and the Snake. The loss would be around 25%. With dams on the river, the loss would be higher, perhaps around 38%." F#$%&c1 ????????????????)?X52Fraction_of_Smolts_to_Survive_at_Very_Low_Density* !" #$%&c' A;L?A!bzAmmA;LA;L????*Expected_Smolt_SurvivalFe/((Fe/X4)+(1/X5)))$      )    !" #$%&cR??????y? +harvest_fraction0, !the harvest occurs as the adults enter the mouth of the Columbia. By specifying a fraction, we assume that the number of adults entering the Columbia is known. " F#$%&c *S?@!&????,adult_harvest+adults_return_to_Columbia*harvest_fraction+2-   +  !" #$%&f'W@5Ci l?@34@!&@5Ci l???-adults_escape_harvest(adults_return_to_Columbia-adult_harvest,   ,  !" #$%&s2??????.harvest_in_past_years043 !" #$%&c1T@y@y??@y@y@y@y???@y? /@y2Tucannon_carrying_capacity_in_thousands_of_smolts400 !Bjorrn suggests 400 thousand as the Carrying Capacity under predevelopment conditions. With land use development in the Tucannon Watershed, the carrying capacity should be lowered to around170 thousand due to degradation of the habitat in the lower section of the Tucannon. " F#$%&cZ?????? 0Randomness_Turned_On?01 !" F#$%&&cd[?????????????1?smolt_mirgation_loss_fractioneMin(.995,smolt_migration_loss_fraction_in_a_regular_year+Randomness_Turned_On?*random(-.05,.05,123))0P ( ? =p  0 - ?  , ? {      !" #$%&f `?????2addtition_to_harvestadult_harvest, ,!" #$%&mb??@(????3@(continue_counting12. !" #$%&c*c?????y?4cumulative_harvest+harvest_in_past_years+harvest_in_this_year.6  .   !" #$%&cf@D@D??@D@D@D@D???@D?5@Dvalue_per_fish406 (!" #$%&3c!g??????6value_of_cumulative_harvest"cumulative_harvest*value_per_fish45  4 5  !" #$@L  0'&f0ِؐ%@$5 million in value: The cumulative economic value of salmon harvesting during your tenure now exceeds $5 million. Congratulations! Keep up the good work. () 0',0%@È$10 million in value. The governors send their congratulations on your continuing success as fisheries manager. The cumulative benefits of salmon harvesting to the region now exceeds $10 million. () 0'V0 p$@LGovernors' News Release: The cumulative Economic Value of salmon harvesting now exceeds $15 million. The governors have issued a special commendation and have asked the President to double your salary. () 0'0 @@("@ӈWhite House Press Release: The President invites you to dinner at the White House to honor your success as fishery manager. The cumulative economic benefits of salmon harvesting now exceed $20 million. ()%& N   Q lG*a t @) 08+,-Salmon Simulator ./ F* D$@Ȁ C'+,- Main Graph./ F*NiDi a+,-.0bbA(0n n 1)2run for 24 months3#/ " # F*Jfe+,-.4hh ?Pi+?3+#56)" #" #/ F*JQkO+,-.4????Pi ?3 #56)" #" #/ F*NQDQo Iw+,-.0A00) n 1)2Tucannon Habitat ParametersWatershed Development Parameters: (controlled by classmates) The egg loss fraction and the carrying capacity of the Tucannon depend on the extent and type of land use in the Tucannon watershed. Egg loss is 50% under pristine conditions. With the land use of the 1970s, egg loss is probably around 75%. The pristince carrying capacity is 400 thousand. With the degraded conditions of the lower river in the 1970s, the carrying capacity would be around 170 thousand. 3#/ " # F*JQkO}+,-.4@y@y@ydPi/?3/#56)" #" #/ F*Nq Dq  i+,-.0A0$0 Dn 1)2Note to the Harvest Manager You may adjust the harvest fraction every two years. The value can range anywhere from 0 to 1.0. Your class mates are going to present you with challenging conditions by changing the migration conditions and the habitat conditions. They may also decide to "turn on" randomness in the simulations. A good harvest manager should be able to obtain a sustainable harvest in the face of challenging conditions. A good manager should also try to avoid major and frequent changes in the harvest fraction. And it is also good to have a plausible explanation for the changes that you wish to make. Final Note: let the model run for the first 120 months before you start harvesting. This allows the population to reach the approximate size before there was significant harvesting. 3#/ " # F*JTkOx+,-.4?陙???Ϳ2Pi?3#56)" #" #/ F*JVkO +,-.4????Pi(?3(#56)" #" #/ F*Z<T" !d+,-.4@8@(@?Pi?3#56)" #" # F*WP@Pv ,+,-.4?Pi0?30#56)" #" #/ F*ND  $+,-.0A0n n 1)2run for 24 months3#/ " # F*N;D;Z  3 b+,-.0A20 04 n 1)2 Instructions5Experiment with the harvest fraction to maximise the total harvest over a 40 year time period. The population is quite small at the start, but it has the potential to grow rapidly under pristine conditions. YOUR CHALLENGE: Your job is to find a strategy for setting the harvest fraction as conditions change over time. Each fraction applies for a two year interval. Select the harvest fraction and click the "run for 24 months" button to simulate the next two years. You are free to consider a different harvest fraction for each harvesting period. YOUR CLASSMATES' CONTRIBUTION: Meanwhile, your classmates are free to vary the four parameters on the control panel at any time during the 40 year time period. Their job is to test your ability to react to conditions beyond your control. CAN YOU HANDLE RANDOMNESS? To test your harvest strategy under more realistic conditions, click the switch to "turn on" some random variations. The green light will signal that there will be random changes in the smolt migration loss fraction. The migration loss fraction will vary around the "value in a regular year" by +or- 5%. If the regular value is 90%, for example, the randomly varying value could be anywhere from 85% to 95% with equal probability. WARNING GAUGE The warning gauge shows the size of the population of two year old salmon in the ocean. These are the fish that will soon enter the Columbia. The gauge incluces color warnings: red: less than 6 thousand yellow: from 6 to 12 thousand green: over 12 thousand You may assume that this warning system was implemented by your staff in case you wish to react to the warnings. But you, not your staff, is responsible for achieving the maximum cumulative harvest. You are under no obligation to react to the warnings. 3#/ " # F*NPDPm Hu+,-.0A00 n 1)2Migration Corridor ParametersRiver Development Parameters: (controlled by classmates) The two migration loss fractions depend on the extent of hydro electric Development on the Snake and Columbia Rivers. The default parameters apply to "predevelopment condtitions." The smolt loss would increase to 95% and the adult loss would increase to around 38% if we wish to simulate the impact of the six dams between the Tucannon and the ocean. 3#/ " # F*NDB J+,-.0AV0nE n 1)2Stop3#/ " # F*N`D`{ X+,-.00A0n n 1)0" F#2Return to Main Control Panel3#/ " # F*NPDP H+,-.0A0nE n 1)2Restore All Devices3#/ " # F**t@ +,-Current Value of the Harvest Fraction (set at the control panel) Harvest in the Current Year (thousands) Cumulative Harvest so far (thousands) Cumulative Value of the Harvest in Thousands of Dollars: (if each fish is "worth" $40) ./ F*R(@"+,-.4Pi+?3+#56)" #" #/ F*R1@"+,-.4Pi?3#56)" #" #/ F*R-@"ٯ+,-.4Pi4?34#56)" #" #/ F*R(@"+,-.4Pi6?36#56)" #" #/ F*tt @t ]6le +,-6 Harvesting Report./ F* D|@"o+,-Harvesting Results./ F*ND +,-.00A0'n n 1)0X" F#2'New panel: more details on harvesting3#/ " # Fdrmd7plwh) | 1jh  wj* m" ry.8+"",-+22;./ * m:)}D+1<1uu,-+cz|z|./ * D1Z0 $IOz+,- time graph ./ * c>i('1\S+,-./ * a~@Z@ T+,-./ * lp+,-./ * aZt1@$mQ+,-./ * m@=[+x5x&&,-+9[[::./ * cXKf+,-./ *t @ [  0c+,-0This diagram looks like the diagram in the book./ *tt@t  l+,-see page 2 below./ * l iD t+,-./ * m}/ 1 +99,-+=&=&./ * a7SG@5P 8z+,-./ * m4fHABA7^ +,-+''D./ * cu'hs+,-./ * aO1l!/^+,-./ * a6g$*z:+,-./ * l)&<R+,-./ * l 45+,-./ * dL-h CU+,-./ * f  L@#+D,-+ X0X0./ * c=Y+,-./ * k{  w-:+ 55,-+ **::./ * dw6n-?+,-./ * c] ==gjK+,-./ * al|Pv+,-./ * cy0 kL+,-./ * co: %P-}H(P+,-./ * a0;KKn4+,-./ * asW@6 5+,-./ * a<bb+,-./ * c ) 4  .LM+,-./ * k @D!1>$%+   ),-+ ..q./ * l "+,-./ * mj'd#5&+,-+%%./ * d1!$(:+,-./ * a9!lKX%3d2+,-./ * c:  &-sP6OP+,-./ * c4*5 ,,'B}(MNO+,-./ * aB@'cF-cF(-;p4+,-./ * k(azz}})4457+(<(,-+c./ * kB*0A,-+  & ,-+ 11^./ * l|KX+X$r+,-./ * d.*,% 7+,-./ * a:*c} }#-de,+,-./ * cS@v.a+,-./ * k''\/20]+:,-+rrB./ * d2/0);+,-./ * l;@1/Sd+,-./ * s.@20 e+,-./ * c>z'd'(3L4+,-./ * aZu3[F@4=Vy+,-./ * d#)5,+,-./ * c&6c7+,-./ * aa6)VQ)7e*+,-./ * cWi%y88eH+,-./ * c^ 9-:%+,-./ * c^!h: 37-+,-./ * l;H+,-./ * c P  p<N+,-./ * d>=|+,-./ * f"&>hw=H+,-+gg./ * l%$@"?S8+,-./ * m$%AA@Awn/A+$o$,-+^|^./ * d@:@:AA(+,-./ *** k'eDxOsEG+5,-+cGc./ * dD%E+,-./ * c(' '(F G+,-./ * aFDwG+,-./ * ac8>1UH,^+,-./ * c^I ?9}+,-./ * mu#/Jh'wrK+/,-+g,g./ * dJK+,-./ * aNY a La%r+,-./ * a 'M0+,-./ * a<'@N@: +,-./ * aP'&btibO3Gx+,-./ * a@N&U1UP1@Bv+,-./ *tkk Qc+,-This part of the model not shown in the book. 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