Olson, Robert. 1994. "Alternative Images of a Sustainable Future." Futures 26(2): 156- 169.

Thesis:

Sustainability is feasible. People need a positive, viable image of the future in order to shape their choices -- both technological and economic -- for this will shape what form a sustainable society will take.

Summary:

Olson begins by underlining the desirability of achieving a sustainable society. In his definition, "[a] sustainable society is one with enough foresight, flexibility and wisdom to avoid undermining the ecological foundations on which it is built, one that can persist and improve on into the distant future" (p.156). He suggests that those of the affluent, industrial nations of the North share a special responsibility for advancing the idea of sustainability, given the drastic imbalance in both consumption and pollution of ecological resources, and the North's access to resources for "environmentally superior technologies." In Olson's view, the "industrial nations need to pioneer a model of development that the nations of the South can realistically aspire to achieve" (p.157).

Olson introduces three possible scenarios for achieving a sustainable future. They are (p.157):

Continued growth with continued pollution control, in which economic growth in industrial nations is seen as the path for becoming rich enough to afford increasing expenditures for pollution control and environmental protection.

Technology transformation, in which improvements in technology drastically increase the efficiency of energy and resource use. Doing more with less changes the face of development, and allows developing nations to "catch-up" in levels of affluence.

Social transformation, in which the 'central mission' of industrial societies changes from quantitative growth to qualitative development, with a changing ethic that takes pride in less energy use and production.

Olson then applies the I=PAT equation (Impact=Population X Affluence X Technology) to each scenario in order to assess their empirical feasibility for realizing sustainability. Under this analysis, continued growth falls short of sustainability goals, in that it is not able to produce the amount of affluence for the entire population to effectively deal with technological impacts. A weakness of the current paradigm is that it focuses on "'end of the pipe' approaches with abate pollution at the point of emission" (p.158).

Scenario 2, technology transformation focuses on developing closed-loop 'industrial ecologies', an approach which "cuts business costs for energy, materials and pollution control, boosts productivity and slashes environmental impacts all at the same time" (p.160). It changes the character of economic growth, where we can 'do more with less' and eventually physical throughputs in the economy decline with economic output increasing. This is viewed in tandem with stabilizing world population. Olson draws from Lovins' operationalization of these visionary assumptions, to compute impact based on I=PAT, and concludes that environmental impact in the year 2050 can be cut to approximately a hundredth of today's (p.162).

The third scenario, social transformation, "involves a 'whole pattern shift' affecting nearly every aspect of society as well as technology" (p.163). Technology evolves in the same direction, albeit at a slower rate, as it does in Scenario #2. There are deep changes in the social dynamics that shape economic activity. These changes come over time as the current scenario, continued growth, collapses. Subsidies are removed from unsustainable activities, taxes are reduced on work, saving and investment, and raised on wasteful energy use and pollution. Urban development changes to focus on compact, energy-efficient, pedestrian-oriented cluster developments, which in turn fosters a community centered ethic. Energy systems become more focused on regional and local sustainability. In this context, consumption and pollution are viewed as things to optimize, rather than maximize. There is technology transfer and cooperative sustainable development between North and South, and innovations eventually begin to flow from South to North. Development efforts focus directly on poverty. Drawing on Meadows et al, Olson calculates sustainability projections under Scenario #3 to reduce environmental impacts to about 6/100ths of the present level by the year 2100 (p.166).

Olson then offers 6 'reflections' on the scenarios (pp.166-168):

A sustainable society is possible.

Conventional approaches to 'growth with pollution control' cannot take us to a sustainable future.

Different routes are possible to different kinds of sustainable societies.

Technological progress is a critical success factor.

We need to choose technologies in light of the kind of society we want to create.

Sustainability can be a key component of positive 'images of the future'.

Olson concludes by cautioning that a positive vision is not enough to achieve sustainability. Rather, "[i]mages of new possibilities need to be broken into small, easily understandable, manageable steps that people everywhere can take for themselves" (p.168). In the end however, it is vision, which holds our aspirations and assumptions of what is needed and possible, that motivates and guides all of our behavior (ibid).

Keywords: I=PAT, vision, technological choices, industrial ecologies, qualitative development